The topography of Afghanistan, comprising of the northern plains, central highlands (part of the Himalayas) and the southwestern plateau, renders the country highly prone to geophysical and extreme weather events. The climate risks faced by the country include rising mean annual temperatures and varying spatial patterns in spring rainfall and snowmelt. This is resulting in increased frequency of both droughts and floods in different regions of the country due to its diverse topography. Specific projections (Asian Development Bank 2017) include
- A rise in temperature by 1.4°C by 2050, and 2.6°C by 2100 under a low-emissions scenario (RCP 2.6); while a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) show a rise of 2°C by 2050, and 6.3°C by 2100
- Increase in number of hotter days, especially during June – August to about 25% by mid-century, and to about 32% by end of century
- Decrease in spring precipitation in northern plains, central highlands and parts of the south
As per Germanwatch, GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2020, Afghanistan ranks 24th in climate risk index for the period of 1989-2018.