India is the largest country in South Asia with a population of more than 1.3 billion. India’s diverse climate zones, ecosystems and topography translate to unevenly distributed climate risks across the country. In the agriculturally important regions, rising temperatures and increased extent and incidence of droughts have caused declines in rice and wheat yields; projections suggest this could lead to a 1.8 percent loss of GDP by mid-century. India’s most important river systems are fed by Himalayan glaciers, which are under threat from increased temperatures, severely impacting water availability for agricultural, domestic and industrial use. An estimated 12.6 million people live directly on land that is at risk from sea level rise and nearly 171 million people depend on coastal ecosystems vulnerable to sea level rise, cyclones and storm surges. (Source: USAID)
The anticipated future impacts of climate change, identified by the Government of India (GOI) in its Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) include (GOI, 2004):
- Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the Ganges and Brahmaputra; 70 per cent of the summer flow of the Ganges comes from snowmelt;
- Erratic monsoons with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture, peninsular rivers, water and power supply;
- Decline in wheat production by 4-5 million tonnes with as little as a 1ºC rise in temperature;
- Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world and threatening freshwater sources and mangrove ecosystems;
- Increased frequency and intensity of floods; increased vulnerability of people in coastal, arid and semi-arid zones of the country; and
- Over 50 per cent of India’s forests are likely to experience a shift in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity and regional climate dynamics, as well as livelihoods based on forest products.
As per Germanwatch, GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2020, India ranks 17th in climate risk index for the period of 1989-2018. It is 5th in the list of most affected countries for 2018 and has suffered a loss of 0.36% of the GDP due to climatic events.