The Republic of Uzbekistan is a doubly landlocked country (landlocked and completely surrounded by landlocked countries) in Central Asia. Uzbekistan faces major challenges with desertification, water scarcity, and further depletion of the Aral Sea that are exacerbated by climate stressors such as increasing temperatures, more frequent and extreme droughts, lower precipitation levels during parts of the year, and changes in weather patterns that shift the growing season. These stressors are projected to intensify in the coming decades, significantly affecting economic sectors and natural resources throughout Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is exposed to a range of weather-related extreme events, including dust storms, mudflows, floods, drought, and avalanches.
The long-term viability of the Aral Sea as a source of water for Uzbekistan is a critical challenge for the country, a consequence of intensive water use, particularly for irrigation, contributing to a significant reduction in total area and increased salinization. Projections forecast reductions in overall precipitation, annual snow cover, and glacial mass, signifying a likely decrease in the long-term average runoff of the major rivers throughout the territory. While Uzbekistan is expected to experience a small increase in precipitation during the winter months, the decreases in other months, particularly in the summer, will likely lead to either stable or slightly decreasing total annual precipitation. Combined with increasing temperatures, including in the spring, there will likely be a decline in annual snow accumulation that will contribute to decreased snow melt and river flows.
Likewise, current projections suggest the glaciers in the upper watersheds of the Amu Darya river basin will follow the global trend of a general recession in size. Due to higher average temperatures, the low-elevation glaciers are likely to recede, and seasonal glacier melt may be depleted over time. The growing water deficit along with increased year-to-year variability will likely have cascading, adverse effects on multiple other sectors, including agriculture (which requires water for irrigation), human health (due to shortages in drinking water) and hydropower generation. (Source: USAID)
As per Germanwatch, GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2020,Uzbekistan ranks 171st in climate risk index for the period of 1989-2018.