Tajikistan‘s diverse topography produces a varied climate. 3 It has many features of a continental climate, e.g., cold winters and hot summers, but the wide range in elevation across the country significantly modulates these seasons. The climate is semi-arid with winter and spring being the most precipitous, and summer and autumn are very dry. The economy of Tajikistan is highly dependent on natural resources. Much of the population lives in rural communities and is involved in agriculture and 90% of the country‘s electricity comes from hydropower, which also is an essential input to its important aluminum industry. All of these sectors are thus highly climate-sensitive and, specifically, the role of water, or lack of it given the semi-arid climate of much of the country, is crucial.
The precipitation extremes and strong seasonality often cause hazardous climate events, such as intense spring rainfall, excessive melt-waters from large snow accumulations from the wet seasons and then droughts in the long dry seasons. Precipitation extremes frequently cause mudflows and floods, and—in the mountainous regions—avalanches, landslides or rockfalls. At the other extreme, droughts can severely reduce water availability. Glaciers in the high altitudes and the temporary lakes that form from meltwater create a potential for glacier lake outbursts, which are sudden and devastating. Climate change is expected to enhance many of these risks and the socio-economic context of the country limits the ability of communities to cope with them
Significant climate change, such as rising temperatures, consequent glacier retreat, and changes in average and extreme precipitation, have already been observed in Tajikistan. 4 Average annual temperatures have increased over the past 60-70 years by as much as 0.2ºC per decade, with many areas seeing increases of 0.1 0C per decade. Even larger increases have been recorded in winter, with increases of up to 3 0C over the same period. Annual precipitation over Tajikistan has increased by 8% since 1940, but with much larger increases (in terms of percentage change) in the dry seasons of summer and autumn. These dry season increases in precipitation are being seen, mainly, as increased rainfall intensity. (Source: ADB)
As per Germanwatch, GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2020, Tajikistan ranks 49th in climate risk index for the period of 1989-2018.