Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelagic state, encompassing more than 17,000 islands. Indonesia is generally dominated by a tropical rainforest climate. Indonesia is affected by various types of natural disasters, including floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions.
The shocks of climate change are already being felt in Indonesia, with more frequent droughts, heat waves and floods, and will pose an increasing threat to the country’s development. A World Bank analysis ranked Indonesia 12th among 35 countries that face high mortality risks due to multiple hazards, including tsunamis, floods, landslides, droughts, and earthquakes. About 40% of Indonesia’s population is at risk of such hazards, and their number will increase under climate change which is likely to exacerbate droughts on southern islands, floods and cyclone intensity across the country, and sea level rise effects in coastal areas. Food security and water availability will be heavily affected by temperature increase, shorter growing seasons, unpredictable rainfall, and salt-water intrusion. By 2100, climate change impacts will cost an estimated 2.5-7% of GDP. (Source: Climate Change Profile – Indonesia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia)
Projected climate change summary for Indonesia:
- Warming will increase by 0.2-0.3°C per decade in Indonesia.
- Increasing annual precipitation across the majority of the Indonesian islands, except in southern Indonesia where is it projected to decline by up to 15%.
- Changes in the seasonality of precipitation are projected: parts of Sumatra and Borneo may become 10-30% wetter by the 2080s during December-February, and Jakarta is projected to become 515% drier during June-August. These are, however, broadly defined patterns that are not consistent across downscaled information for Indonesia.
- A 30-day delay in the annual monsoon is projected, bringing a 10% increase in rainfall later in the crop year (April-June), and up to a 75% decrease in rainfall later in the dry season (July–September).
As per Germanwatch, GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2020, Indonesia ranks 77th in climate risk index for the period of 1989-2018.
